AFL preseason is a time for teams to blow out the cobwebs, show off the young talent and try new tactics/rules. It is also a time for fans to either feel excited for the season ahead or miserable for what is to come, are AFL preseason games (JLT/NAB) an indicator for the actual AFL season?
Lets look at the top for teams from 2018-2015 and their preseason results, with the findings below:
2018
West Coast Eagles (premiers)
1 win / 1 loss
Win: West Coast Eagles (56) vs Port Adelaide (54)
Loss: Fremantle (101) vs West Coast Eagles (39)
Collingwood (runners-up)
1 win / 1 loss
Loss: GWS (96) vs Collingwood (36)
Win: Collingwood (113) vs Western bulldogs (80)
Richmond (3rd)
2 wins
Win: Essendon (37) vs Richmond (124)
Win: Richmond (128) vs North Melbourne (58)
Melbourne (4th)
2 wins
Win: North Melbourne (71) vs Melbourne (124)
Win: Melbourne (119) vs St Kilda (93)
2017
Richmond (premiers)
3 wins
Win: Richmond (92) vs Adelaide (73)
Win: Port Adelaide (51) vs Richmond (79)
Win: Richmond (107) vs Collingwood (114)
Adelaide (runners-up)
2 wins / 1 loss
Loss: Richmond (92) vs Adelaide (73)
Win: Adelaide (70) vs Geelong (64)
Win: Adelaide (142) vs Brisbane Lions (103)
GWS GIANTS (3rd)
2 wins / 1 loss
Win: GWS (70) vs West Coast Eagles (37)
Loss: GWS (42) vs Sydney (54)
Win: GWS (125) vs North Melbourne (87)
Geelong (4th)
2 losses / 1 win
Loss: Hawthorn (98) vs Geelong (94)
Loss: Adelaide (70) vs Geelong (64)
Win: Geelong (122) vs Essendon (100)
2016
Western Bulldogs (premiers)
1 win / 2 losses
Win: GWS (73) vs Western Bulldogs (104)
Loss: Western Bulldogs (60) vs Melbourne (72)
Loss: Collingwood (107) vs Western Bulldogs (105)
Sydney (runners-up)
2 wins / 1 loss
Win: Sydney (81) vs Port Adelaide (60)
Loss: Sydney (60) vs GWS (94)
Win: Carlton (69) vs Sydney (91)
GWS (3rd)
2 wins / 1 loss
Loss: GWS (73) vs Western Bulldogs (104)
Win: Sydney (60) vs GWS (94)
Win : Brisbane Lions (83) vs GWS (122)
Geelong (4th)
1 win / 2 losses
Loss: Geelong (123) vs Collingwood (131)
Win: Essendon (24) vs Geelong (111)
Loss: Fremantle (83) vs Geelong (71)
2015
Hawthorn (premiers)
1 win / 2 losses
Loss: Hawthorn (72) vs Collingwood (116)
Loss: North Melbourne (85) vs Hawthorn (72)
Win: St Kilda (39) vs Hawthorn (145)
West Coast Eagles (runners-up)
1 win / 2 losses
Win: West Coast Eagles (78) vs Carlton (47)
Loss: Port Adelaide (89) vs West Coast Eagles (49)
Loss: West Coast Eagles (85) vs Fremantle (104)
North Melbourne (3rd)
2 wins / 1 loss
Loss: Adelaide (90) vs North Melbourne (80)
Win: North Melbourne (85) vs Hawthorn (72)
Win: Richmond (106) vs North Melbourne (120)
Fremantle (4th)
2 wins / 1 loss
Win: Fremantle (61) vs Melbourne (43)
Loss: Sydney (65) vs Fremantle (56)
Win: West Coast Eagles (85) vs Fremantle (104)
Findings
Setting one thing straight is that all the premiership winning teams won at least one game, this has been the trend since 2013 when Hawthorn who won the premiership did NOT win a preseason game.
The win ratio is tough to use because some preseason had 2 games per team and others 3 games, so it cannot really be used. The only premiership winning team from 2015-2018 that won all games was Richmond (2017). 2015 and 2016 saw the ‘would be’ premiers win just 1 and lose 2 in preseason.
Any conclusions? not necessarily but remember since 2013 every premiership winning team has won at least one game in preseason… will this trend be bucked?